Indian Markets Surge Despite Geopolitical Tensions — Nifty Hits 2025 Highs

With the Nifty 50 closing at its highest level in 2025, India's stock markets continue to defy international uncertainty. Supported by technical strength and encouraging global cues, investor sentiment is still strong despite rising geopolitical tensions with Pakistan and expanding global macroeconomic concerns.

Market Performance Overview

Even as India firmly responded to rising cross-border terrorism and diplomatic tensions with Pakistan, including the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, the Nifty 50 rose 2.07% over the past two weeks. While the small-cap and micro-cap indices underperformed, falling by 0.64% and 2.4%, respectively, the Bank Nifty also reported a modest gain of 0.83%.

This discrepancy suggests that retail investors are being cautious, especially given the geopolitical unpredictability. However, in the past, Indian markets have proven resilient during times of conflict, frequently responding with brief panic and then seeing significant recoveries as soon as things settle down.

Did You Know? Following a military escalation during the 1999 Kargil War, the Nifty saw a 4% initial decline before rising by more than 30% by the end of the conflict.

Technical Analysis: Bullish Momentum Continues

Technically speaking, the Nifty's breakout above significant trendline resistance is a bullish indication. On April 21, a critical trendline that ran from the high of 23,807 on February 5 to the high of 23,869 on April 25 was broken, resulting in a gap between 23,872 and 23,903, which was successfully closed on April 25.

The Nifty set a new 2025 high last Friday, closing at 24,346. Despite a brief dip below the intraday trendline, it was able to close above it and continue on its upward trajectory. The slope of the trendline is causing the support level, which is currently at 23,920, to rise every day.

Key resistance levels to watch include:

• 24,589 (last Friday’s high)
  
  
• 24,708
  
  
• 25,212
  
  
• 25,650 (projected target from the ongoing inverted head-and-shoulders pattern)
  

Global Market Influence and Positive Cues

Markets around the world have also performed well. Driven by robust non-farm payroll data and renewed optimism in US-China trade talks, the US S&P 500 continued its winning run for nine straight sessions, the longest in more than 20 years. These advancements indirectly support developing markets like India by raising the general level of risk appetite worldwide.

Investor Outlook: Confidence Amidst Uncertainty

Long-term investors are urged to stick with their plans despite worries about regional instability. Given that sentiment around the world is shifting in favor of India, historical data and current technical patterns indicate that Indian stocks may continue to rise.

As always, investors can more confidently handle volatility by remaining diversified and concentrating on businesses that have solid foundations.